2019-08-24 02:38:01 未知
When will India achieve China's current GDP per Capita?
Chris Chen, A Chinese citizen living in Canada
For now, China's nominal GDP per capita is around 8300 USD while that figure for India is around 1700 USD. China is roughly five times more than India. If we want to figure out how long it will take for India to catch up, we need to mention other nations' past performance.
It took China 10 years to go from the level where India is at right now to the level where China is at right now. (2005-2015)
It took South Korea 13 years to finish the same process. (1979-1992)
It took the UK 15 years to finish the same process. (1964-1979)
It took Japan 9 years to finish the same process. (1969-1978)
It took France 15 years to finish the same process. (1963-1978)
It took Italy 11 years to finish the same process. (1969-1980)
It took Spain 15 years to finish the same process. (1972-1987)
It took Brazil 30 years to finish the same process. (1978-2008)
It took Mexico 27 years to finish the same process. (1979-2006)
It took Turkey 28 years to finish the same process. (1979-2007)
It took Maldives 19 years to finish the same process. (1996-2015)
How long do you think India is going to take?
TL;DR - minimum of 34 years, so sometime after 2050.
Yet another middle school math question, that you can either estimate by rearranging the old compound interest formula.
futureValue = presentValue*(1 + rateOfChange)^numbmerOfYears
Or to put it another way:
numbmerOfYears = ln (futureValue / presentValue ) / ln (1 + rateOfChange)
Or turning the gdp growth rate into a vector, and working out the value of x that will intersect a horizontal line running through $7,990, see: Line–line intersection
Anyway assuming India achieves a constant 6% REAL growth rate (slightly better than the OECD forecast below), with an annual population growth rate not exceeding 1.2%, it will turn it's current $1,617 into China's 2015 figure of $7,990 per capita just after 2050, as:
ln(7990/1617) / ln(1+ (0.04 - 0.012)) = 57.853 Years (@ 4% REAL GDP growth)
ln(7990/1617) / ln(1+ (0.05 - 0.012)) = 42.836 Years (@ 5% REAL GDP growth)
ln(7990/1617) / ln(1+ (0.06 - 0.012)) = 34.076 Years (@ 6% REAL GDP growth)
ln(7990/1617) / ln(1+ (0.07 - 0.012)) = 28.336 Years (@ 7% REAL GDP growth)
ln(7990/1617) / ln(1+ (0.08 - 0.012)) = 24.284 Years (@ 8% REAL GDP growth)
ln(7990/1617) / ln(1+ (0.04 - 0.012)) = 57.853 年(真实GDP增速为 4% )
ln(7990/1617) / ln(1+ (0.05 - 0.012)) = 42.836 年 (真实GDP增速为 5% )
ln(7990/1617) / ln(1+ (0.06 - 0.012)) = 34.076 年 (真实GDP增速为 6%)
ln(7990/1617) / ln(1+ (0.07 - 0.012)) = 28.336 年 (真实GDP增速为 7%)
ln(7990/1617) / ln(1+ (0.08 - 0.012)) = 24.284 年 (真实GDP增速为 8%)
From: India GDP Growth Forecast 2015-2020 and up to 2060, Data and Charts -
Even using the PPP multiplier it's forecast to take 20+ years:
Gross domestic product per person, volume, at 2005 PPP, USD
Mabye…two years.You know, China has a huge wealth gap and its economy will collapse in the next two years. India is a strong country, which can surpass not only China but also the United States in ten years
Dinesh Kumar Jain, former Ambassador at Ministry of External Affairs, India (1975-2012)
China's current (in 2015) nominal per capita GDP is US$ 10,090, whereas India's is 1,820, that is, roughly less than one-fifth. Now, when India will reach China's current level will obviously depend on India's growth rate. Growth rate is not a constant, but changes from year to year depending upon a whole lot of factors, domestic and external, and many of those are not in our control. You ask 10 economists what they would forecast as India's average growth rate over next 2-3 decades and each will give you a different figure. Going by the trend since 1991, the current conditions, and numerous prospective factors, my own best guess would be 6.5%. If we go by that, it is a matter of simple arithmetics to work out that we will take another 28 years to reach China's present income level. A long haul, no doubt. But we could do it much faster IF we could improve our infrastructure, education quality, and IF we could all work harder and more sincerely. A very tall order, again!